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題名 | 是沒錢買股票﹖還是股價使人窮﹖--臺灣地區股市與國民儲蓄的因果關係初探=Poor People Can't Buy Stocks﹖Or Low Stock Prices Make People Poor﹖: The Causal Analysis between Stock Prices and Public Saving in Taiwan |
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作者姓名(中文) | 鄭家興; | 書刊名 | 康寧學報 |
卷期 | 4 2002.06[民91.06] |
頁次 | 頁89-98 |
分類號 | 553.15、553.15 |
關鍵詞 | 股價波動; 景氣循環; 國民儲蓄; Price fluctuation; Public saving; Economic circulation; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本文試圖以總體經濟及財務管理之觀點,來澄清坊間對於股價波動對國民「財富」 影響的兩種股市與國民儲蓄的因果關係論述。實證結果對該兩種論述的正確性都無法充分支 持:假說一「由於經濟不景氣影響企業經營績效,造成國人所得失衡,所以沒錢投資股市, 造成股價下跌。」的實證中國民儲蓄與股價波動並無直接相關,其中尚有景氣波動的因素在 內。假說二「由於經濟不景氣影響企業經營績效,造成股價狂跌,使投資人財富縮水,沒有 餘錢買股票。」在實證推論�媦v響股價波動的因素尚包含國民對經濟環境預期。故上述兩項 論述中均需加入「景氣波動」與「國民預期」的因素討論尚能具有部分程度的正確性。 |
英文摘要 | The purpose of this article is to make clear about two wealthy theses from the Taiwanese public. I try to analysis them from macroeconomic and from financial views. The result, in fact, can support neither of the two theses. However, it infers that there is another reason affecting both of the public wealth and stock prices. The thesis I- the downfall of the stock prices is caused by the income unbalance, from bad achievements of companies- is irrelevant to the public saving. The thesis II- the downfall of the stock prices is caused by the public wealthy decreasing, from economic declining-lacks of the economic expectation. Thus, it might be better to put another two factors-"the economic circulation" and "the economic expectation" in the discussion of these two theses. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。