查詢結果分析
來源資料
頁籤選單縮合
題 名 | 臺灣儲蓄率之實証研究:1952-1995年=An Empirical Study of Taiwan's Saving Rate: From 1952 to 1995 |
---|---|
作 者 | 祁玉蘭; | 書刊名 | 經濟論文 |
卷 期 | 27:3 1999.09[民88.09] |
頁 次 | 頁335-357 |
分類號 | 551.82 |
關鍵詞 | 恆常所得跨期消費模型; 消費均攤; 金融性財富; 預防性儲蓄; 跨式限制式; Wald檢定; Permanent-income intertemporal model of consumption; Consumption smoothing; Financial wealth; Precautionary savings; Cross-equation restrictions; Wald test; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 臺灣儲蓄率的重要現象之一是我們的儲蓄率在過去四十年來其平均水準明顯地高於已開發國家,另一方面,自從1987年後,原本上升的趨勢已轉變為逐步下降,而在1986-88年間,臺灣的資產(例如房地產與股票)價格大幅上升,爾後快速下跌,一般基本的恆常所得跨期消費模型並不能對儲蓄率的跨國差異以及儲蓄率與金融性資產價值變動的關聯提供合理的解釋。本文採用強調金融性財富與預防性儲蓄的模型,我們發現除了典型的未雨綢繆行為外,在解釋儲蓄率水準上,預防性儲蓄動機扮演著重要角色,且儲蓄率會與預期未來資產價值以及所得水準的變動呈現重要關係。我們進一步透過一個向量自迴歸模型來預測未來的變數,並檢定恆常所得消費模型所隱含的跨式限制式,實証結果發現基本的恆常所得消費模型雖可被接受,然而據以推估出的理論儲蓄率與實際的儲蓄率仍存在著差距。 |
英文摘要 | One important feature of Taiwan's saving rate is that its long-run average level has been significantly higher than developed countries' over the past 40 years. On the other hand, the upward trend in Taiwan's saving rate has changed to a downward one since 1987. At the same time, prices of financial assets, such as real estate and securities, first rose and then began to drop substantially between 1986 and 1988. A basic permanentincome income intertemporai model of consumption cannot explain these two Important facts. This paper expands the standard mode! by incorporating financial wealth and precautionary savings. This paper shows that other than a typical "saving for a. rainy day" motive, precautionary savings motive plays an essential role in explaining the long-run average level of saving rates; on the other hand, the current savings rate and expected future values of financial assets appear to be closely related. A vector autoregressive model is used to predict future values of relevant variables. Wald tests have been performed to test crossequation restrictions implied by the permanent-income intertemporal model. The empirical results suggest that the intertemporal model of consumption can be accepted statistically. However, the discrepancy between theoretical and realistic savings rate implies that the economic goodness-of-fit of the intertemporal model is still weak. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。