查詢結果分析
來源資料
頁籤選單縮合
題 名 | 選民的投票決定與選舉預測=Voting Decision and Election Prediction |
---|---|
作 者 | 盛杏湲; | 書刊名 | 選舉研究 |
卷 期 | 5:1 1998.05[民87.05] |
頁 次 | 頁37-75 |
分類號 | 573.36 |
關鍵詞 | 投票決定; 投票行為; 選舉預測; 多元洛基模型; Voting decision; Voting behavior; Election forecast; Multinomial logit model; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 民意調查者通常是以受訪者回答的投給某候選人作為受訪者的投票意向,然後據 以預測選舉,然而,本研究指出簡單的將選民二分為回答投票意向者或不回答投票意向者, 以及二分為投給某候選人或不投給某候選人,則選舉預測的錯誤機會相當高,這一個錯誤一 方面來自於受訪者本身的不確定,而另一方面則來自於受訪者本身的不確定因而導致的測量 誤差。 本研究以為選民投給某個候選人的機率不是二分法的 1 或 0,而是介於 1 與 0 之 間, 根據選民的政治態度與背景,作者使用多元洛基模型( multinomial logit model ) 估算出選民可能投票給每一個候選人的機率,並且發現選民如果投給某一個候選人的機率高 ,則他投票給該候選人的可能性就大,且不易變更。本研究據此原則預測選舉結果,結果有 兩次選舉 -- 民國八十三年的臺北市長與民國八十六年的桃園縣長補選 -- 預測準確,但另 有兩次選舉 -- 民國八十三年的臺灣省長與民國八十五年的總統選舉 -- 預測不準。 |
英文摘要 | This paper examines the process of voters' voting decision and develops a way of predicting voters' voting decision. Most surveys on election prediction are based on respondents' answers on their vote choices. However, this paper indicates two serious problems in this way of election prediction. One problem comes from the indecision of most voters, and the other problems comes from measurement errors. To deal with this problem, this paper provides a way of estimating each voter's probabilities of voting for each candidiate. The author indicates that the probability of voting for a particular candidate is not 0, neither is 1. Instead, the probability of voting for a particular candidate ranges from 0 to 1. The author bases on four major variables--candidate evaluations, party identification, incumbent government satisfaction, and ethnicity-- to construct a vote choice model, and estimates the model by way of a multinomial logit model. Then, the author calculates individual voters' probabilities of voting for each of the candidates. The research finding shows that the chance of voting for a particular candidate is large if a voter has a high probability of voting for the candidate. Based on this principle, the paper predicts the outcomes of four elections and two of them are quite accurate. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。