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題 名 | Indian Bigeye Tuna (Thunnus obesus) Status Evaluated by a Stochastic Age-structured Production Model Based on Longline Fishery Data=應用隨機性年齡群化生產量模式評估印度洋大目鮪系群 |
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作 者 | 葉裕民; 許建宗; 賴怡汝; 劉錫江; | 書刊名 | 臺灣水產學會刊 |
卷 期 | 28:1 2001.03[民90.03] |
頁 次 | 頁35-48 |
分類號 | 439.24 |
關鍵詞 | 大目鮪; 隨機性生產量模式; 資源量指標; 泛線性模式; 最大持續生產量; Bigeye tuna; Thunnus obesus; Stochastic age-structured production model; Abundance index; General linear model; GLM; Generalized linear model; GENMOD; Maximum sustainable yield; |
語 文 | 英文(English) |
中文摘要 | 本研究利用GLM模式法與GENMOD模式法分別針對台灣、日本與韓國之鮪延繩釣 漁業漁獲統計資料進行單位漁獲努力量的標準化,並採用隨機性年齡群化生產量模式評估印 度洋大目鮪系群資源狀態。在標準化單位漁獲努力量模式中所採用的校正因子是取決於不同 國家的資料型態而定。根據不同模式所估計之標準化單位努力漁獲量,在變動趨勢上呈現出 些許的差異。利用隨機性年齡群化生產量模式評估的結果顯示印度洋大目鮪系群之最大持績 生產量估值為十一萬六千公噸,高於1995年的實際總漁獲量。綜觀漁業死亡係數、孕卵系群 資源量、補充潛力(steepness)及模擬資源量的估計結果,研判印度洋大目鮪已處於完全開 發狀態,但應屬合理的開發範圍,漁獲量持續維持的機率大。然而.對於近期漸增的漁獲死 亡係數及連續偏高的漁獲量則應有所警惕。 |
英文摘要 | Taiwanese, Japanese and Korean longline fishery data sets from different time frames were used to derive the abundance indices, which were standardized by general linear model (GLM) and generalized linear model (GENMDO). Several factors were chosen to fit the models depending on the data availability of each fishery. Then, a stochastic age structured production model (ASPM) analysis was used to assess the stock status of Indian bigeye tuna. Accordingly, the results of standardizing abundance indices show a slight difference among trends of standardized CPUE using those two models. The results obtained by ASPM analysis indicate that the maximum sustainable yield (MSY) is estimated about 116,000 metric tons, which is slightly higher than the catch level in 1995, with high fishing mortality. Estimates of the fishing mortality, spawning stock biomass, steepness and simulated abundance suggest that the Indian Ocean bigeye tuna stock is in full exploitation, and sustainability with low probability since a pessimistic stock recruitment relation is obtained. Conclusively, the recent increase of fishing mortality and continuously high catch has to be pre-cautious. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。