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來源資料
頁籤選單縮合
題 名 | Evaluation of New York State Revenue Consensus Forecasting Meeting=紐約州歲入共識預測會議評估 |
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作 者 | 郭昱瑩; | 書刊名 | 空大行政學報 |
卷 期 | 11 2001.08[民90.08] |
頁 次 | 頁125-145 |
分類號 | 564.3 |
關鍵詞 | 歲入預測; 合議預測; 紐約州歲入預測; 歲入合議預測; Revenue forecasting; Consensus forecasting; New York State revenue forecasting; Revenue consensus forecasting; |
語 文 | 英文(English) |
中文摘要 | 自1996年開始,美國紐約州由州長及參眾兩院多數及少數黨領導人主導的「經濟及歲入共識預測會議」必須每年召開。於這個研究中,採行實地調查,研究者扮演觀察者的角色,觀察1998年「紐約州經濟及歲入合議預測會議」的過程;此外,亦採行面訪,訪問五位具代表性的預測專家,他們來自於紐約州預算局、眾院多數、少數黨預算委員會(Assembly Ways and Means Committee),及參院多數及少數黨財務委員會(Senate Finance Committee),以了解不同的機關如何協商或縮小預測的差距,目的是為達成協議及提供讓平衡預算通過的有效基礎。研究結果指出於會議中並無達成歲入預測的共識;預測專家多專注於做出精確的預測,而讓他們的主管去協商共識的達成;紐約州延遲的預測多因無及時共識而造成。 |
英文摘要 | sSince 1996, an economic and revenue consensus forecasting meeting, directed by the Governor and the Majority and Minority leaders of the Senate and Assembly, is required each year in New York State. In this study, a field research was conducted and the researcher played the role of a complete observer to observe the process of 1998 New York State Revenue and Economic Consensus Forecasting Conference. Moreover, personal interviews were conducted with five people in the NYS Division of the Budget, the Assembly Ways and Means Committee Majority and Minority, and the Senate Finance Committee to see how different agencies compromise or narrow down the forecasting differences in order to achieve agreements and develop a useful basis for enactment of a balanced budget. Research results indicated that no consensus was achieved in the revenue consensus forecasting meeting; revenue forecasters merely focus on making correct revenue forecasts, but let their supervisors negotiate the consensus; New York State's late budget was substantially due to no timely consensus. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。