頁籤選單縮合
題 名 | 臺灣出口收益不穩定性的成因及對產業的影響=The Causes of Export Earnings Instability and Empirical Tests on Industrial Sectors for Taiwan |
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作 者 | 陳宏易; 黃寶玉; 張大成; | 書刊名 | 東吳經濟商學學報 |
卷 期 | 32 2001.03[民90.03] |
頁 次 | 頁55-82 |
分類號 | 558.52 |
關鍵詞 | 貿易集中度; 出口不穩定性; Trade concentration; Export instability; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本文利用台灣1989-1998年的月資料,分別以指數型式、線性型式及移動平均型式三種方法,衡量這段期間的出口不穩定指數,並探討造成台灣出口不穩定之成因及其對產業影響的實證分析。實證結果分述如下,以指數趨勢及線性趨勢所求得之出口不穩定指數為被解釋變數,則發現造成台灣出口不穩定的主要因素為:商品集中度與初級產品出口比重,其影響效果皆為正向且統計顯著;而地理集中度、農產品出口比重、農產品加工出口比重、與工業產品出口比重則皆不顯著;同時,該實證結果極具頑強性 (robustness)。若以移動平均方法所求算之出口不穩定指數為被解釋變數,則發現其實證結果相當不穩定。另外,就出口不穩定性對不同製造業產值的影響效果而言,實證結果發現大多數的製造業,皆現呈現顯著的負向關係。因此,我們認為若欲提升我國製造業之產值,則應以維持我國出口技益的穩定性,提供廠商一個擁有穩定收益的出口市場為原則,也就是降低我國出口不穩定性;而若欲降低我國出口不穩定性,則需以分散出口產品別,也就是降低產品集中度為目標。 |
英文摘要 | The purpose of this paper is to examine the causes of export instability and its impacts on Taiwan's industries during 1989-1998. Three different functional forms (i. e., exponential, linear, and moving average) of export instability indices are employed. Since there is no first order autocorrelation and ARCH effect for the monthly time series data, we apply the traditional OLS approach in the paper. We find that the causes of export instability are mainly from commodity concentration and primary ratio in the case of exponential and linear functional form. Both variables are statistically significant and positive correlated with export instability. However, the results of the moving average export instability index are unstable and statistically insignificant. For the consequences of export instability, we find that maintaining the stability of export will benefit the production of manufacture industries. In addition, the diversification of export commodity concentration will reduce the degree of export instability. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。