查詢結果分析
來源資料
頁籤選單縮合
題 名 | 金融市場套利模型與投機性攻擊分析--兼論1998年香港政府干預金融市場事件=Arbitrage and Speculation Attack of the Financial Markets with an Analysis of the Hong-Kong Government's Intervention in the 1998 Financial Crisis |
---|---|
作 者 | 王鳳生; 廖四郎; | 書刊名 | 東吳經濟商學學報 |
卷 期 | 29 2000.06[民89.06] |
頁 次 | 頁47-63 |
分類號 | 562.1 |
關鍵詞 | 投機性攻擊; 泡沫經濟; Speculative-attack; Bubble economy; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 就我們所建立的模型做推論,若投機性攻擊成功的改變了本國投資者的預期,則本國投資者的預期變成P1=P1=P1+θ,e1=e1=e1+λ,θ<0,λ>0,此處P1及各e1為本國投資者原來的預期,P1及e1為其新預期。我們可以計算新的四個市場均衡價格,P1,e1,Pf及ef,相較於原來的均衡P0,e0,Pf及ef而言,是為較低的均衡。此項結果是屬於文獻土曾經探討過的多重均衡 (Multiple Equilibria) 模型:從舊的高均衡調整到新的低均衡,通常會過度往下調整,此特性與泡沫經濟的自發性破滅有所不同;後者是由高均衡逐漸衰退到實質經濟所代表的低均衡,但投機性攻擊會將經濟往下拉到比此均衡更低的狀況,然後再往上調整到新的較低的實質經濟均衡位置。 |
英文摘要 | This paper shows that if speculative-attack from international fund successfully change the expectation of local investor, its new expectation became to P1 = P1 = P1 +θ,e1=e1- el+λ,θ<0,λ>0. We then can computer four new equilibrium prices (P0,e0,Pf and ef;) which is lower than the previous prices, Po, e0, Pr and ef. The results we obtained belong to the Multiple Equilibria model that often mentioned in the international finance literature: adjusting from higher equilibrium price to lower equilibrium price, it may result in price over-shooting, which is quite different from the autonomous burst that may occur in the bubble economy. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。