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題 名 | Expert Judgments and Adjustments in New York State Revenue Forecasting=紐約州歲入預測中的專家決斷與調整 |
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作 者 | 郭昱瑩; | 書刊名 | 世新大學學報 |
卷 期 | 10 2000.10[民89.10] |
頁 次 | 頁221-249 |
分類號 | 550.1 |
關鍵詞 | 歲入預測; 專家決斷; 判斷的調整; Revenue forecasting; Expert judgment; Judgmental adjustment; |
語 文 | 英文(English) |
中文摘要 | 長久以來,歲入預測被認為是經濟計量問題,鮮少注意到歲入預測過程中的人為決斷與調整(human judgments and adjustments)。因而,此研究著重在美國紐約州歲入預測專家何時、如何、為何做人為決斷與調整,以及他們做了哪些決斷與調整。研究結果顯示紐約州歲入預測專家的人為決斷很頻繁的發生於下列幾種狀況:當他們建構經濟計量模型時、當突發事件發生時、當資料有缺失時、當預測結果與資料不一致時、以及當稅法改變需預測其影響時。 |
英文摘要 | Revenue forecasting has long been studied as an econometric problem, and little attention has been paid to the role of human judgment in the process. The purpose of the research reported here is to examinethe role of expert judgments and adjustments in New York Stale revenue forecasting. The research questions include: What judgments and adjustments do experts make? When, why, and how do experts make judgments and adjustments? Personal interviews were conducted with II respondents at the director or deputy director level in the New York State the Division of the Budget, the Assembly Ways and Means Committee Majority and Minority, and the Senate Finance Committee. The resultss how that expert judgments and adjustments are involved constantly and in a variety of ways, including: 1) constructing models (e.g., What assumptions should be put in the models?), 2) adjusting models when something abnormal occurs, 3) filling in missing gaps of information (e.g., time-lag issues), 4) "reality check" (Do the numbers correspond to real situations?), and 5) forecasting the impacts of tax law changes.Economic variables, tax structure and tax payers' behavior are important variables in the process. Expert judgments and adjustments in New York State experience will be identified and discussed. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。