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題 名 | 臺灣地區生命表之編製--蔣氏終壽年齡區間存活成數之應用=On Constructing the Life Table of Taiwan Area--The Application of Chiang's Fraction of Last Age Interval of Life |
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作 者 | 林正祥; | 書刊名 | 輔仁管理評論 |
卷 期 | 5:2 1998.09[民87.09] |
頁 次 | 頁155-176 |
分類號 | 516.2 |
關鍵詞 | 終壽年齡區間存活成數; 完全生命表; 簡易生命表; The fraction of last age interval of life; Complete life table; Abridged life table; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 生命表的發展由來已久,有許多方法為了達到數據光滑的優點,大都是採用複雜 的數學公式,藉此所得的生命表函數較難進行統計推論。五十年代前期由於醫學隨訪方面 的研究,生命表才受到注意。但也因為統計和機率理論的發展,才有可能以隨機的觀點來 處理生命表,Chiang(1984)即是利用隨機過程之觀念對生命表提供了理論基礎,本文所用 之終壽年齡區間存活成數a即是其所創,他給了a�竣@個理論基礎,因此在算出各年齡區間 的a�筏�之後,我們就很快的可以建立簡易生命表,而且a�筍D常的穩定,不會隨時間而變 化,因此可以每十年修正一次,本文提供了1992年台灣地區全部人口、男性及女性之a�筏� ,我們在十年內可以一直採用此一a�窗A直到2002年之前不用更改。這要比一般傳統的生命 表編製法要簡捷許多,而且其又有嚴密的理論基礎,能在台灣地區推廣應是相當有意義的 。此外,我們比較了蔣氏生命表和其他生命表,發現其所推估的死亡機率都相當接近;另 外,我們亦指出國內所編製之生命表中某些指標之錯誤說明並加以澄清。 |
英文摘要 | Although there is no theoretical basis, the life table have been developed for a long time. Due primarily to the work of health statisticians in medical follow-up studies in the early 1950's, the life table has begun to attract the attention of statisticians. But it was advanced in probability and statistical theory that made it possible to address the life table from a purely stochastic point of view and to provide the subject with the theoretical foundation. Chiang (1984) presented both the theory and application of life table methodology from a statistical perspective. He introduced the fraction of the last age interval of life into life table with theoretical foundation. In this paper, we are trying to apply Chiang's concept to the mortality data in Taiwan area on contracting the life table. Chiang's fraction represents the mortality pattern prevailing in the population in each interval. Since the mortality pattern hardly varies over time (although death ratios do), the fraction may be regarded as a constant and used for construction of abridged life tables of subsequent years of the population. It can be revised by 10 years. Also, we compare the difference among Chiang's Life Table and other Life Tables and find their estimated probability dying in interval come very close. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。