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頁籤選單縮合
題名 | 年輪δ13C的氣候推斷--時間序列方法=Climatic Implications of Tree Ring δ丨C--A Time Series Approach |
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作者 | 吳鐵肩; 許德惇; 藍正婷; | 書刊名 | 中國統計學報 |
卷期 | 37:4 1999.12[民88.12] |
頁次 | 頁319-334 |
分類號 | 319.5 |
關鍵詞 | 年輪δ13C; 臺灣樅樹; 雨量; 時間序列; 溫度; 轉換函數; Tree ring δ13C; Precipitation; Taiwan fir; Temperature; Time series; Transfer function; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 台灣樅樹的年輪δ13C時間序列的紀錄 (1933年-1992年) 被用來測試他們與局部年雨量及年平均溫度數據的位勢關係 (potential correlation)。我們提出一個二階段配模 (model fitting) 的方法。第一階段是將δ13C級數拆成三部份,並建立其轉換函數模型 (transfer function models) :一個已確定 ( deterministic) 非線性傾向,一個雨量或溫度的項,及一個白噪聲的擾動。在第二階段時調整過的δ13C被用以當作滿足雨量及溫度紀錄的輸入資料,而所得到的轉換函數模型則用以反推過去的雨量及溫度。本研究不但提供一個使年輪δ13C時間序列與年降雨量及平均溫度數據相關的新方法,更顯出用年輪δ13C來推論過去雨量和溫度變化的可行性。 |
英文摘要 | Tree ring δ13C time series records (1933-1992) from a Taiwan fir are used to test their potential correlations with the local total annual precipitation and mean annual temperature data. A two-stage model-fitting approach is proposed. The first stage involves building transfer function models in which the δ13C series is decomposed into three components: a deterministic non-linear trend, a precipitation or temperature term and a disturbance or white noise term, while al1 major climatic or environmental factors other than precipitation or temperature are integrated into the deterministic non-linear trend. At the second stage, the detrended δ13C is used as an input .to fit to the precipitation or temperature record and the resu1ting transfer function models can be used to backforecast the past precipitation or temperature. The study not only provides a new method for correlating tree ring δ13C time series data to the total annual precipitation or mean annual temperature data, but also shows the feasibility of using tree ring δ13C data for inferring the past precipitation and temperature changes as well. 1 proposed approach can also be applied and provides a new method to study climatic implications of tree-ring widths. |
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