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題名 | 灰色理論在兩岸海運貨櫃運量預測之應用=Applying Gray Forecasting Models to Predict Freight Market for Cross-Strait Direct Shipping |
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作者 | 黃泰林; 王小娥; 陳垂彥; Hwang, Tay Lin; Wang, Shaw Er; Chen, Chun Yen; |
期刊 | 長榮學報 |
出版日期 | 19980600 |
卷期 | 2:1 1998.06[民87.06] |
頁次 | 頁103-123 |
分類號 | 557.445 |
語文 | chi |
關鍵詞 | 兩岸直航; 境外航運中心; 運量預測; 灰色理論; Cross-strait direct shipping; The offshore shipping and transportation center; Demand forecasting; Gray theory; |
中文摘要 | 1997年四月中,在我方「境外航運中心」業務正式啟動後,兩岸間之貿易才正式得以不透過第三地而互相交流,但這也只侷限在轉口貨部份;對於兩岸間之直接進出口貨物仍須透過第三地轉口或彎靠,其中以香港為轉口港的貨物佔了八成以上。本研究基於上述發展基礎為研究中心。在研究方法上,本研究擬以目前現行經第三地轉運之運量資料加上境外航運中心之運量資料,透過灰色理論來構建運量需求模式,並進行廣泛之分析比較;期能透過本研究之研究成果及具體建議,提供給政府未來在研擬相關政策,及業者未來在評估兩岸直航市場時之參考。 |
英文摘要 | The shipping between Taiwan and Mainland China must transfer through a third port since the opening of indirect trade in 1987. The Offshore Shipping and Transportation Center of Taiwan and the Tentative Direct shipping of China started at April 1997. Since then, the transfer shipping between the two sides can be directed moved. However, the direct-shipping still need to be transferred through a third port. This project aims to study the above-mentioned issue. We will use Gray theory to construct demand forecast models to evaluate the possible total shipping demand of direct shipping. The results of this study would be useful to the government in making future policies. It would be also useful to shipping carriers as well in making their future business strategies. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。