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題 名 | 衛生掩埋場滲出水量條件性異質變異時序模式=Autoregressive Condition Heteroskedastic Model of Leachate Production from Sanitary Landfill |
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作 者 | 陳昶憲; 黃偉民; | 書刊名 | 中國土木水利工程學刊 |
卷 期 | 10:1 1998.03[民87.03] |
頁 次 | 頁117-123 |
分類號 | 445.545 |
關鍵詞 | 自迴歸條件異質變異模式; 垃圾滲出水量; 垃圾總量; 時間序列分析; Autoregressive condition heteroskedastic model; Leachate production; Refuse amount; Time series analysis; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 由於垃圾掩埋場滲出水量主要由降雨量及垃圾含水量所產生,故本研究由滲出 水量、降雨量及垃圾總量三變量之月時序資料,進行時序分析,基於滲出水量與降雨量具 有高度的變方異質性,故本文採用時變條件異質變異數理論,建立滲出水量單變量、滲出 水量與降雨量雙變量及滲出水量與降雨量、垃圾總量三變量之條件性異質變異時序模式。 經評比,在模擬套配結果上,以雙變量TFN L-R(1,1)配合GARCH(1,1)模式,具最小之誤差 平方和(S□)及BIC值,而於向前預測驗證上,以單變量AR(1)配合CARCH(1,1)模式,具最 小之S□及泰爾不等係數值(UI)。故若令滲出水量之變異數為條件時變值時.滲出水量之時 序預測模式僅利用最簡易之自迴歸模型即可。 |
英文摘要 | This paper applies the autoregressive condition heteroskedastic ( ARCH) time series model for the forecasting of leachate production from sanitary landfall. Based on the fact that the main sources of leachate are originated from precipitation water and moisture content in refuse, three types of models are chosen in this study, including the univariate models, the bivariate models and the trivariate models. They are developed by the situations of leachate production with or without precipitation depth and / or refuse amount. The bivariate model, TFN L-R(1,O) with GARCH (1,1)process, |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。