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頁籤選單縮合
題 名 | 貨幣政策、預期形成與農產品價格的動態調整=Monetary Policy, Expectation Formations, and Dynamic Adjustment of Agricultural Product Prices |
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作 者 | 胡士文; 賴景昌; 王葳; | 書刊名 | 農業經濟叢刊 |
卷 期 | 2:2 1997.06[民86.06] |
頁 次 | 頁211-239 |
分類號 | 431.26 |
關鍵詞 | 貨幣政策; 預期形成; 調整過度; 調整不及; 貨幣中立性; Monetary policy; Expectation formations; Overshooting; Undershooting; Money neutrality; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本文嘗試建構一涵蓋農產品及製造業產品的兩部門模型,並據此解說民眾對於農產品價格的預期形成方式如何主導農產品價格的實際調整風貌。我們發現:(i) 貨幣於長期具有中立的性質。 (ii) 在貨幣擴張之際,若民眾對農產品價格有靜態預期形成或理性預期形成時,則農產品價格必定調整過度;但若民眾對農產品價格有分佈性時差預期形成,則農產品價格可能調整過度,也可能調整不及。(iii) 因應貨幣的擴張,若民眾對農產品價格有靜態預期形成或理性預期形成時,農產品價格將展現相當單純的調整型態;但若民眾對農產品價格有分佈性時差預期形成,農產品價格可能展現饒富變化的調整風貌。 |
英文摘要 | Based on an amended Frankel (1986) model, this paper sets up a two-sector model, and addresses how both agricultural and manufactured product prices will respond in the presence of permanent monetary expansion under alternative expectation formations. The expectation structures we considered include static expectations, ditributed-lag expectations, and rational expectations. Three major conclusions are established from the analysis. First, the standard money neutrality is valid in the long run. Second, agricultural product prices display overshooting as the public form their expectations with either static expectations or rational expectations, but may either overshoot or undershoot as the public form their expectations with distributed-lag expectations. Third, agricultural product prices may exhibit a cyclical pattern during the adjustment period as the public form their expectations with distributed-lag expectations. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。