查詢結果分析
來源資料
相關文獻
- 應用灰費爾哈斯特(Grey Verhulst)模型探討宜蘭縣人口成長極限
- 人口成長與經濟成長的關係
- 經濟人口統計分析
- 人口成長與國土資源
- 人口老化--從最適人口成長的觀點重新詮釋
- Reaffirming the Limits: A Critique of Beckerman's "Small is Stupid" and Simon's "The State of Humanity"
- 中國大陸人口就業城市化趨勢與展望
- 基隆港市的成長過程及其發展課題
- Economic-Demographic Relationships and Urban Development in Taiwan: An Exploratory Analysis
- 因應地方人口成長適當調整學校分布以平衡城鄉教育
頁籤選單縮合
題名 | 應用灰費爾哈斯特(Grey Verhulst)模型探討宜蘭縣人口成長極限=Application of Grey Verhulst Model to the Prediction about Limitation of Population Growth in Yilan County |
---|---|
作者 | 陳俊合; Chen, Chun-ho; |
期刊 | 蘭陽學報 |
出版日期 | 20120600 |
卷期 | 11 2012.06[民101.06] |
頁次 | 頁24-38 |
分類號 | 542.1 |
語文 | chi |
關鍵詞 | 人口成長; 成長極限; 灰費爾哈斯特模型; Population growth; Growth limitation; Grey Verhulst model; |
中文摘要 | 費爾哈斯特 (Verhulst)模型是由德國生物數學家 Verhulst於1837年提出的生物生長模型,其特性是模型之預測趨勢會趨向某固定數值而達極限穩定,人口成長亦不會無限制成長,將因環境與食物等限制因素而達極限穩定。灰費爾哈斯特模型便是將 Verhulst模型之特性結合灰預測 GM(1,1)模型,在灰預測模型中加入一個限制發展項,以推求人口可能之實際成長極限情況。 灰預測是近幾年廣受發展之預測模型,因其僅需小樣本往往便可得到高預測精度 (90%以上)。本研究以宜蘭縣 1993∼2011年之人口資料為基礎,進而以灰費爾哈斯特模型推估宜蘭縣 2013年之成長極限人口,以提供政府部門擬議人口發展政策之參考。 |
英文摘要 | The Verhulst model about the growth of biology was proposed by a German bio-mathematician in 1837. Its characteristic was that the predictive trend will limit to fixed value and be saturated and stable. Traditional prediction model of long regulation often requires large of data and sometimes doesn’t accord to the economic effect. Thus the grey predictive model which only depends on small data can acquire high accurate result (90%) is used more widely. The Grey Verhulst model was combined the characteristic both with the verhulst model and GM(1,1) of grey predictive model. It added a limited item of development into the GM(1,1) mode to satisfy the situation of realistic saturation. This study was on the basis of population of 1993~2011 in Yilan County, by means of a grey verhulst model to predict the population in 2013, in order to propose results to the government for reference when making decision in population policy. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。