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題 名 | RAS方法在能源消費與產業結構分析上之應用=The Analysis of Industry Structure and Energy Consumption: An Application of RAS Method |
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作 者 | 廖寶珠; 王京明; | 書刊名 | 經濟研究. 臺北大學經濟學系 |
卷 期 | 34:1 1996.01[民85.01] |
頁 次 | 頁1-19 |
分類號 | 554.68 |
關鍵詞 | 等比乘數法; 部份調查法; 資訊距離; 工業能源消費; RAS; Partial survey method; Information distance; Industrial energy consumption; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 臺灣過去五十年來經濟成長迅速,能源消費量大幅增加,因此如何有效掌握能源消費的特性與型態,實為一重要課題。目前臺灣的油品、電力為獨占市場,所以能源供給面之數據,有中油及臺電可提供相關資料,但需求面的資料就必須靠調查才能獲得。 傳統的調查推估母體是以「以小推大」的方法,但此法往往會產生某種程度的誤差。有鑑於此,本文遂應用RAS分析法,將調查所得數據配合已知的次級資料,透過插補與笒比法來推估母體。使用此法可完全推估交叉分析表中的每一方格,其加總的數量會與實際總量相互一致,而分解過程亦完全符合資訊理論及統理。此外,只要次級資料許可利用RAS法亦可將其它未實際調查期間之能源消費量推估出來。 目前各種次級資料大多均只有單維如行業別等的能源消費數據,並無多維的數據。因此本文將以工業部門的電力消費情形為例,說明如何透過RAS方法來推估工業部門下之中分業在不同地或別的消費情形。由於採取此法樣本數可較以往減少,又能配合次級資料的正確性,故在成本上較以往經濟。所以,將來在類似的能源消費調查或產業結構分析上,應可推廣此法之使用。 |
英文摘要 | This study applies a partial survey technique, the RAS method, to analyzing industrial electricity consumption pattern over different regions in Taiwan. Data from a survey of industrial energy consumption in 1995 together with secondary sources are used for the empirical estimation of the electricity consumption value by various industries over different regions in Taiwan. Two-way contingency tables of the electricity consumption are estimated by a RAS method given different assumptions about prior information. The method is to seek the most probable estimates with conform to given information about the total industrial electricity consumption in different regions in Taiwan, based upon whether the prior knowledge of the estimates can be gathered from a survey or not. The results indicate that without any prior information, by assigning equal values to the cells of the contingency table, the RAS estimates can still be made and they can serve as a quick guess for the estimation. However, if the amount of prior information increases such as those derived from the survey data the RAS estimates can be improved substantially. The results also show that geographically, the industries with heavier electricity consumption are those of textile and chemical material in Northern Taiwan, pulp and paper, chemical material and basic metal in Central Taiwan, basic metal and textile in Southern Taiwan, and non-metallic mineral products in Eastern Taiwan. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。