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題名 | 國營事業土地開發財務評估案例分析=A Finance Analysis on Land Development of State-owned Enterprises in Taiwan |
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作者 | 施鴻志; 蘇玉守; 陳冠位; Shih, Hung Chih; Su, Yu Shou; |
期刊 | 臺灣土地金融季刊 |
出版日期 | 19990900 |
卷期 | 36:3=141 1999.09[民88.09] |
頁次 | 頁117-140 |
分類號 | 554.41 |
語文 | chi |
關鍵詞 | 國營事業; 土地開發財務; 現金流量折現法; 敏感度分析法; State-owned enterprise; Land development finance; Discounted cash-flow method; Sensitivity analysis; |
中文摘要 | 國營事業土地開發管理屬於「國土次規劃體系」,宜建立一整體性的開發策略與 決策體系,包括區位條件分析、經營模式可行性評估、開發財務效益與風險評估等,以促進 土地有效利用,落實國土永續發展。財務評估為土地開發重要依據,過去財務評估較著重於 計畫效益,本研究以所有權人、開發者角度分析動態性時間點之財務效益、財務風險及潛在 風險因子,以「嘉義縣白水湖遊憩綜合發展計畫」範圍內臺鹽公司土地之個案研究,進行土 地開發模式(出租、設定地上權、BOT 模式、合夥開發)之財務評估。首先探討不同開發模 式之財務影響變數, 以現金流量折現法( Discounted Cash-Flow Method DCE )進行淨現 值( NPV )、內部投資報酬率( IRR )分析,評估不同開發模式之財務績效;藉由自償率 ( Self Liquidating ratio, SLR )、 償債比率( Debt Service Coverage Ratio, DsCR )等指標評定開發者之財務風險; 並針對不同開發模式之財務因子進行敏感度分析( sensitivity analysis, SA ),作為影響開發計畫風險之關鍵性因子; 考量所有權者、開 發者開發模式之評選,提供土地開發與經營之協商空間。 研究結論:1)影響出租主要因素為「地價年息比例」,出租著重於地主與承租者之協商以 達成兩者皆可接受的地價年息比例;2 )影響地上權模式主要因素為「設定年期」,當增加 年期時,其效益增加比例大於年期增加比例,適合長期性( 50--80 年)計畫投資;3 )影 響 BOT 模式之因子為「融資與貸款利率」, 其成功與否實依賴著融資之資金調度及償還能 力;4 )影響合夥開發模式主要因素為「營運收入」,較不受融資之影響。 |
英文摘要 | Large amount of land resources of state-owned enterprises belonging to sub-system of national land planning and management have an important effect on national land development. During the past decades, land development has emphasized on benefits which lacks risk evaluation. This studt applies a case studt to analyze profit, risk and potential risk factors of development project among different models included land leasing, land superficies, build-operate-transfer (BOT) and public-private-partnership (PPP) throughout disconted cash-flow method (DCF). It will adopt indicators of net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), self liquidating ratio (SLR) and debt service coverage ratio (DsCR) to understand land development financial performance and risk. Beside, applying financial sensitivity analysis (SA) to find out potential risk factors will give landlord, developers and managers the opportunity to negotiate. This study points out that the most effective factor of land leasing of state-owned enterprises is the government-declared land price. Land superficies is the period of land development. Build-operate-transfer model is the bank financing which implies that BOT also means that 「 Bankable Or Terminal 」. Operational income is the most effective factor for public-private-partnership model. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。