頁籤選單縮合
題名 | The Impact of Major Innovations: Guesswork or Forecast﹖= |
---|---|
作者 | Devezas,Tessaleno Campos; |
期刊 | Journal of Futures Studies |
出版日期 | 19970500 |
卷期 | 1:2 1997.05[民86.05] |
頁次 | 頁33-50 |
分類號 | 550.1354 |
語文 | eng |
關鍵詞 | Technology; Socioeconomic analysis; |
英文摘要 | This article suggests a different approach to ranking and understanding innovations, looking at their socioeconomic dimension. It is shown that there is a strong synergism among major innovations in each new technological paradigm, as well as a forceful determinism in human socioeconomic behavior, implying a determinism in the evolution of technology. Although it is not yet possible to forecast the precise path of the evolution of a given major innovation and its synergistic relationship with the entire set of novel technologies in each emergent technological paradigm, it is pointed out that a new trend in socioeconomic analysis is presently burgeoning, a new scientific paradigm that in the near future will help humankind to overcome the present impasse. Finally it is concluded that the evolution of society, regarded as an open complex system with technoeconomic subsets, is not a question of chance, but of necessity, following some iron rules of nature. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。