頁籤選單縮合
| 題 名 | 中國劇變與臺灣對策=China's Upheaval and Taiwan's Countermeasures |
|---|---|
| 作 者 | 曾建元; 詹佳宜; | 書刊名 | 中華行政學報 |
| 卷 期 | 33 2023.12[民112.12] |
| 頁 次 | 頁41-73 |
| 分類號 | 573.07 |
| 關鍵詞 | 民主轉型; 中國民主化; 外部正當性; 兩岸關係; 習近平; Democratic transition; China democratization; Outward legitimacy; Cross strait relationship; Xi Jinping; |
| 語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
| DOI | 10.6712/JCPA.202312_(33).0003 |
| 中文摘要 | 中華人民共和國在習近平主政之後,政治全面倒退,在意識形態上認同毛澤東,強化中 華民族主義和大漢族主義,對抗憲政主義與普世價值,將習近平思想入憲並取消國家主席任 期限制,而以依憲治國口號掩飾黨國權力集中一身,並運用科學技術強化社會控制。習近平 欲與美國全球爭霸,東亞稱雄,在大國外交戰略下,有一帶一路經濟帝國的建構,對聯合國及相關國際組織全球治理的干擾,對西太平洋與南海區域安全的威脅,而隱匿武漢新型冠狀 病毒肺炎疫情,更釀成全球性人類大劫難。習近平的高調作為,導致以美國為首的民主世界 的警戒,而有中美貿易戰的開打、美國印度太平洋戰略聯盟的串聯,乃至於美國召開民主峰 會宣示全球新冷戰結構的成形,再加上俄烏戰爭中中華人民共和國的曖昧選邊,在在都使習 近平核心領導下的中華人民共和國,陷入了更甚於六四鎮壓後的國際孤立形勢和敵對處境。 習近平正等待迎接第三個黨總書記和國家主席任期,固然危機動員可能有助於他以團結號召 黨國和人民擁護,但也可能因內外局面失控而使其喪失領導權威,甚至遭到罷黜。 習近平的上台,並不是政績卓著,官聲斐然,而是因為父蔭和身為太子黨、紅二代的根 正苗紅,而被賦以維繫中國共產黨政權鐵桶江山和紅色權貴既得利益的重責大任,但這不代 表習近平可以獨攬大權終身。所以一旦習近平將黨國帶向內外交迫、風雨飄搖的地步,黨國 權貴群體基於自保的動機,必然要對習近平的去留和黨國權力機制的調整有所抉擇,而若非 如此,而是習近平因故無法視事或突然去職,因習近平並無法定的權力繼承者,中華人民共 和國的黨國體制也從未建立權力繼承或競爭的遊戲規則,後習近平時代必然要進入權力盤整 或是鬥爭的階段。觀察目前中共黨國內部權力菁英的權勢和派系關係,究竟何人在一夕之間 可以繼承習近平的黨國領袖位置,乃無法論斷,這就意味著後習近平時代的到來,中共政治 必然將會發生地殼變動般翻天覆地的重大變化,如果中國大陸能就此契機展開民主轉型和憲 政改革,至少就權力遊戲公平規則的建立以及黨國統治正當性基礎的轉換而言,就能使政治 平穩過渡,從而為中國的民主化打造出一條道路。 中國是一個大國,對全球秩序和人類文明都有著舉足輕重的影響,如果中國轉型成為憲 政民主國家,則民主中國所參與的全球治理,將會基於普世價值的共識基礎創造人類的共善 和福祉,流氓國家或專制國家將不會再因有中華人民共和國的背後撐腰而在國內外興風作 浪,世界大同指日可待。而面對後習近平時代的隨時可能來臨,以美國為首的國際社會是否 已經做出準備,因勢利導,幫助中國走向民主化,還是任由中國內部陷入腥風血雨,從而牽 動全球秩序、國際關係,將考驗著美國和各國政治家和人民的智慧。 本研究係針對中國民主化的問題,以及我國在當中的可能角色和作用深入討論,以期尋 找和凝聚出共識,就當前與今後我國中國大陸政策的方向和內容提出具有建設性的建言。 |
| 英文摘要 | Since Xi Jinping came to power in the People’s Republic of China, the political situation has been deteriorating. Ideologically, he identifies with Mao Zedong, stresses Chinese nationalism and Great Han nationalism, shows contempt for constitutionalism and universal values, inserted Xi Jinping Thought into the constitution and canceled term limits for the state presidency. He tries to conceal the fact that he has seized all power in the party-state, behind a facade of “rule of constitution” slogans, and uses technology to cement his control over society. Xi wants to compete with the US for global hegemony and lord over East Asia, formulating the One Belt, One Road initiative under his Wolf Warrior Diplomacy strategy, disrupting the global governance of the United Nations and other related international organizations, threatening the regional security of the west Pacific and the South Sea, and covered up the COVID-19 epidemic, resulting in a global catastrophe. Xi Jinping’s actions has caused alarm amongst the free world led by the US, leading to the US-China trade war, the Indo-Pacific strategic alliance and the announcement of a new Cold-War order at the US-hosted Summit for Democracy. Combined with the China’s ambiguous response to the RussianUkraine War, these developments have led to Xi’s China falling into even worse isolation and enmity than the aftermath of the June 4th massacre. In the wake of Xi’s third term as party secretary and state president, the sense of crisis could indeed serve to shore up support from the party and people, but should he lose control of the internal and global situation, he could also lose his authority and be ousted from power. Xi Jinping’s rise to power did not depend on his political achievements and prestige. It was his bloodline as a second-generation Communist, that led to him being entrusted to protect Communist rule and the vested interests of its ruling elite, but his iron grip on power was not anticipated. As a result, as soon as Xi leads the party and the country into crisis, the party elite will move to preserve itself, and make arrangements for Xi and the party power structure. Otherwise, if Xi Jinping is suddenly unable to discharge the duties of office, his lack of a legitimate successor, and also the lack of an established rule for succession and competition, could lead to power consolidation or struggle in the post-Xi era. Observing the current party elite and their factions, it is still unclear as to who could succeed Xi as the leader of the party-state, suggesting that as the post-Xi era approaches, a sea change in Chinese politics draws near. If China could grasp the opportunity to implement democratic transition and constitutional reforms, then at least it could create a set of fair rules for power, and legitimize the state’s authority, paving the way for a peaceful transfer of power, and the democratization of China. China is a large nation, with great influence on the global order and human civilization. If China transitions to a constitutional democracy, then it could participate in a global governance for the common good of mankind, based on an consensual understanding of universal values. When rogue states and autocracies could no longer count on the People’s Republic’s backing, to cause mayhem domestically and abroad, world peace could be in sight. As the post-Xi era draws near, whether the US-led global community is ready to help China transition to democracy, or pull the world into its internal chaos, will be the greatest test of the wisdom of the US and its allies and their leaders and people. This paper discusses the question of the democratization of China, and Taiwan’s possible role in the process, in the search for consensus in this matter, to provide constructive advice for Taiwan’s current and future policy for China. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。