頁籤選單縮合
題 名 | 食物消費轉型能夠達成淨零碳排削減目標嗎?--產業關聯分析之驗證=Can Food Consumption Transformation Achieve Net Zero CO₂ Emissions Goal?--Evidence from Input-Output Analysis |
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作 者 | 鄭芳旻; 王雅暄; 張國益; | 書刊名 | 農林學報 |
卷 期 | 70:2 2023.06[民112.06] |
頁 次 | 頁125-140 |
分類號 | 445.9 |
關鍵詞 | 食物消費碳排; 產業關聯分析; 糧食自給率; Food consumption carbon emissions; Input-output analysis; Food self-sufficiency rate; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
DOI | 10.30089/JAF.202306_70(2).0004 |
中文摘要 | 隨著氣候變遷及全球暖化議題升溫,減少溫室氣體排放量成為主流趨勢,各國紛紛推展相關政策及研究,以追求達成2050年全球淨零碳排的目標。過往文獻指明了食物消費是主要碳排來源之一,本文將糧食自給率相似且皆具有依賴進口特性之臺灣與日本兩者作為研究對象,限定在米、小麥、蔬菜、牛肉、豬肉、家禽肉、水產七項重要食物項目,前三者與後四者分為兩組,模擬該兩組情境下三階段之食物消費轉型,應用產業關聯分析(Input-Output Analysis)量化評估國產消費金額變動後的碳排削減量,目標在2050年達成碳中和並改善過高過低之單品項糧食自給率問題。本文結果證實在產業關聯分析之進口內生、消費外生之均衡生產量決定模型下,進行國產消費金額轉型之兩組情境模擬變動,透過波及效果下可減少跨部門的碳排放量,但無法達成2050年淨零碳排的目標。兩種情境中,臺灣在四項肉品情境變動下之碳排削減量對碳排基準量有較大的差距,而日本則是在米、小麥、蔬果三項食物的情境變動下有顯著差額,顯示僅通過轉型食物消費結構,意圖在2050年達成單項目部門碳排量之碳中和仍有難度,減排效果有限,仍需搭配技術面如增加生產效率降低碳排係數等多項因素配套,才能進一步接近淨零碳排目標。 |
英文摘要 | With the escalating concerns of climate change and global warming, reducing greenhouse gas emissions has become a mainstream trend. Countries worldwide are implementing policies and conducting research to achieve Net Zero CO_2 Emissions by 2050. Previous literature has pointed out that food consumption is one of the major sources of carbon emissions. This study focuses on Taiwan and Japan, two regions with similar food self-sufficiency rates and a reliance on imports, as research subjects. It specifically examines seven important food items: rice, wheat, vegetables, beef, pork, poultry, and aquatic products. These items are divided into two groups: the first three and the latter four. The study simulates food consumption transformations in three stages and applies Input-Output Analysis to quantify the carbon emission reductions resulting from changes in domestic consumption expenditure. The objective is to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 and adjust imbalances in self-sufficiency rates for individual food items. The results of this study confirm that, under the Input-Output Analysis model with endogenous imports and exogenous consumption, two scenarios of domestic consumption transformation lead to reduced carbon emissions across sectors due to ripple effects. However, they do not achieve the 2050 Net-Zero goal. Under the scenario simulation, Taiwan experiences a significant gap between carbon emission reductions and the carbon baseline level in the four meat scenario, while Japan shows notable differences in the three staple food scenario. This indicates that achieving carbon neutrality solely through transforming food consumption structures is challenging and the emission reduction effects are limited. Complementary measures, including technological improvements such as enhancing production efficiency and reducing CO_2 emissions intensities, are necessary to come closer to Net Zero. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。