頁籤選單縮合
題 名 | 2015~2017年疾病管制署傳染病防疫政策民意調查之網路即時民調及電訪民調結果比較=The Analysis of Online Polls And Telephone Polls on Policies in Infectious Diseases Control by Taiwan Centers for Disease Control, 2015~2017 |
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作 者 | 劉志鴻; 彭美珍; | 書刊名 | 疫情報導 |
卷 期 | 36:3 2020.02.11[民109.02.11] |
頁 次 | 頁29-37 |
分類號 | 412.72 |
關鍵詞 | 傳染病防治; 網路即時民調; 電訪民調; Infectious diseases control; Online poll; Telephone poll; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 為獲取民眾意見,各級政府單位紛紛建立多種管道,如:首長電子信箱、民意調查等,但因民意調查較具有系統性及科學性,逐漸廣泛被運用。疾病管制署以往皆委託民調公司辦理電話訪問民調,有鑒於網路普及率提高,因此疾病管制署於全球資訊網建立網路即時民調專區,辦理網路即時民調。 本研究主要針對2015年8月至2017年6月期間,疾病管制署的網路即時民調及電訪民調數據分析。該期間網路即時民調共辦理24次,電訪民調共辦理10次。網路即時民調各年度執行所有民調題目的樣本數在2015年介於1,229至3,559人次;2016年介於308至4,019人次;2017年介於170至2,186人次,顯示網路即時民調的樣本數浮動大。電訪民調以95%信賴度估計,最大抽樣誤差為±3%以下,有效樣本數須高於1,068人。同年度相同民調題目,以網路即時民調或電訪民調的方式辦理,調查結果出現差異。 網路即時民調因具非隨機抽樣、自我選擇、樣本數及樣本代表性不足等限制,在做民調結果推論時,必須非常小心。民意調查為政府機關獲取民意管道之一,建議政府機關如需較精準掌握民意,仍應以較具系統性、科學性的電訪民調為主,若資源充裕,更應結合不同調查方法以提高樣本涵蓋率,提升民調結果的準確性。 |
英文摘要 | To catch up the latest opinion from the public, each governmental unit has implemented various channels to obtain information such as Director’s emailing address, opinion poll and so on. Since the result of the opinion poll has better systemic and scientific evidence in comparison with other survey methods, it has been widely used in recent years. The Taiwan Centers for Disease Control (TCDC) has contracted with survey firms to conduct telephone polls for many years. Nevertheless, in consideration of high rate of internet users, the TCDC has set up a polling place on the website to obtain real time public opinion. We analyzed the difference between online polls and telephone polls from August 2015 to June 2017. In this period, we conducted 24 online polls and 10 telephone polls. The sample sizes (person-times) of various topics from the online polls were between 1,229 and 3,559 in 2015, 308 and 4,019 in 2016, and 170 and 2,186 in 2017, respectively. With 95% confidence interval and the sampling error less than 3%, and the effective sample size for telephone poll was at least 1,068. In addition, we found significant differences between online polls and telephone polls with the same topic. Online polls are not random sampling, and have limitations on self-selection as well as limited sample size and representativeness. Accordingly, conducting statistical inferences based on online polls needs to be careful. We recommend that conducting traditional telephone polls is preferable if precise results are needed. If the budget is enough, the government should combine various survey methods for raising coverage and accuracy in polling results. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。