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頁籤選單縮合
題名 | 以基因演算法探討多代擴散模型之預測能力=Using Genetic Algorithm to Explore the Forecasting Capability of the Multi-Generation Diffusion Model |
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作者 | 饒忻; 黃弘景; 陳照文; Rau, Hsin; Huang, Hung-ching; Chen, Chao-wen; |
期刊 | 中原學報 |
出版日期 | 20041200 |
卷期 | 32:4 2004.12[民93.12] |
頁次 | 頁555-568 |
分類號 | 494.5 |
語文 | chi |
關鍵詞 | 基因演算法; 多代擴散模型; 預測; 參數估計; Multi-generation diffusion model; Parameter estimation; Forecasting; Genetic algorithm; |
中文摘要 | 隨著科技迅速發展,產品替換的速度越來越快,能否在適當時機推出新產品,關係著企業獲利的多寡,而其中關鍵就在於企業能否有效預測市場上各產品的消長變化,及時做出正確決策。多代擴散模型為需求預測模型,用於探討產品擴散及產品間替代過程。本研究以基因演算法探討過去多代擴散模型參數估計方法的問題,結果發現基因演算法能有放解決傳統最佳化演算法對初始值敏感的問題,並且優於其它多代擴散模型參數估計問題的求解方法之預測能力。 |
英文摘要 | As technology advances quickly, the speed of product substitution is getting faster and faster. Introduction of new products at the right time is essential for the company's profit. However, one of the key points is whether companies can forecast the demand of their products and make right decisions. The multi-generation diffusion model is a demand-forecast model, which explores the process of product diffusion and product substitution. This research uses the Genetíc AIgoríthm to improve the límítatíon of the traditional method for exploring the forecasting capability of the multi-generation diffusion model. The result of this study shows that the proposed Genetic AIgorithm model can resolve the sensitivity issue of the initial value and have the better result in forecasting than other traditional methods. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。