頁籤選單縮合
| 題 名 | Road Accident Death Prediction Using a Combined Markov Chain and GM(1,1) Model |
|---|---|
| 作 者 | Li, Guo-dong; Wang, Chen-hong; Yamaguchi, Daisuke; Nagai, Masatake; Masuda, Shiro; | 書刊名 | Journal of Grey System |
| 卷 期 | 11:3 2008.09[民97.09] |
| 頁 次 | 頁141-150 |
| 分類號 | 557.34 |
| 關鍵詞 | Road traffic accident; GM(1,1) model; Markov chain; Taylor approximation method; |
| 語 文 | 英文(English) |
| 英文摘要 | The paper proposes a dynamic analysis model to develop the road accident prediction model. The dynamic analysis model takes advantage of powerful prediction capability of GM (1,1) model based on grey system theory while at the same time utilizing the prediction power of Markov chain model from stochastic process theory. Furthermore, Taylor approximation method is employed to acquire the most accurate prediction. As the illustrative example, we predicted China's road accident death toll from 2006 to 2010 based on the statistical data recording of 1987 to 2005. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。