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題名 | 非時變模糊時間數列預測模式之研究=An Integrated Time-invariant Fuzzy Time Series Forecasting Model |
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作者 | 劉浩天; 鍾順傳; 劉書助; Liu, H. T.; Chung, S. C.; Liu, S. C.; |
期刊 | 管理研究學報 |
出版日期 | 20040700 |
卷期 | 4:2 2004.07[民93.07] |
頁次 | 頁169-189 |
分類號 | 319.5 |
語文 | chi |
關鍵詞 | 非時變模糊時間數列預測模式; 模糊數; 模糊時間數列預測; 專家判斷; Time-invariant fuzzy time series forecasting models; Fuzzy number; Fuzzy time series forecasting method; Experts' judgment; |
中文摘要 | 模糊時間數列預測模型普遍存在兩項缺點:(1)單一預測值,非區間侓,無法提供決策者更多相關資訊;(2)當突發狀況發生時,歷史資料無法即時反應,造成預測誤差。針對上述問題,本文發展一綜合型非時變模糊時間數列預測模式,結合模糊時間數列預測與專家判斷,以模糊預測值(模糊數)提供決策者相關訊息。本文先以一範例測試,並與其他模糊預測模式比較,結果顯示;本模型預測結果比其他預測模式較佳,再以楠梓加工區被動元件製造公司產品需求預測實例,說明植模式之實用性。 |
英文摘要 | Various fuzzy time-series forecasting models have been proposed. However, most of them have the following problems: (1) the forecasting values are a single value; (2) When unexpected conditions happen, the historical data can not be used to predict the situations properly. In order to solve the problems mentioned above, this paper proposes an integrated time-invariant fuzzy time series forecasting model that combines fuzzy time series forecasting method and experts’ judgment to predict the time series. The fuzzy forecasting values (fuzzy number) provide decision makers useful information. One example is used to validate the accuracy of the proposed model. The results indicate the proposed model is better than the other existing models. At last, the proposed model is implemented in a real-word case. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。