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題名 | 產業生命週期與股票投資績效研究=Industrial Life Cycle and Stock Performance |
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作者 | 張竹萱; 盧德康; Chang, Chu-hsuan; Lu, Te-kang; |
期刊 | 清雲學報 |
出版日期 | 20100100 |
卷期 | 30:1 2010.01[民99.01] |
頁次 | 頁161-181 |
分類號 | 563.54 |
語文 | chi |
關鍵詞 | 成長型投資; 投資績效; 股票投資; 產業生命週期; 價值型投資; Growth stock; Industrial life cycle; Investment performance; Stock investment; Value stock; |
中文摘要 | 本研究針對台灣股票市場進行研究探討,從基本面分析切入,蒐集1982 年 至2008 年十四個產業(水泥工業、食品工業、塑膠工業、紡織業、電機機械、電 器電纜、化學生技、玻璃陶瓷、造紙工業、鋼鐵工業、橡膠類、汽車工業、電子 類、建材營造)股價與相關資料,利用量化分析方式了解各產業所屬產業生命週 期階段,再進一步地利用本益比、股價淨值比與現金股利率等資料,將各產業類 股區分為成長型、價值型與混合型等三種不同類型,再檢測其長短期投資績效; 實證結果顯示,投資人在進行短期投資時,建議可先判讀產業所屬生命週期階 段,再進而挑選適合投資的股票類型,至於長期投資則建議投資人應選擇投資價 值型類股,研究結果可作為投資人未來投資決策的參考依據。 |
英文摘要 | This study investigates the relationship between industrial life cycle and stock performance. Since investors tend to be more conservative after Financial Tsunami, we focus on the Taiwanese capital market and do the research by using the quantitative and fundamental analysis. We collect 14 industries (including Cement, Food, Plastics, Textile, Electrical Machinery, Electric Appliance and Cable, Chemistry and Medical Science, Devitroceram, Paper, Iron and Steel, Rubber, Automobile, Electricity Subclass, Building Materials)from 1982 to 2008, and define their respective life cycle stage. We also use price-to-earnings ratio (P/E), price-to-book ratio (P/B) and dividend yield to classify industrial firms into value or growth stocks. Finally, we examine the long-run and short-run stock performance within different industrial life cycle and different style of stocks. Empirical results show that investors may choose different styles of stocks according to the stage of their industrial life cycle in the short-run investment. In addition, our findings suggest that investors should choose value stocks in the long-run investment. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。