查詢結果分析
來源資料
頁籤選單縮合
題名 | Analysis of Incubation Period and Spatial Clustering of a Common Source Outbreak=共同感染源群突發之潛伏期與群聚現象分析 |
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作者 | 秦淳; 沈秋香; | 書刊名 | 安泰醫護雜誌 |
卷期 | 14:4 2008.12[民97.12] |
頁次 | 頁213-222 |
分類號 | 412.41 |
關鍵詞 | 共同感染源群突發; Sartwell氏常態對數模式; 波以松分布; 空間群聚性; 嚴急性呼吸症候群; Common source outbreak; Sartwell's lognormal model; Poisson distribution; Spatial clustering; Severe acute respiratory syndrome; |
語文 | 英文(English) |
中文摘要 | 背景及目的:任何疾病都有其特有的潛伏期,尤其是傳染性疾病。確認疾病具有共同的同時暴露及空間的群聚現象,則有助於評估某一群突發。空間分布已是許多疾病流行病學資訊的中心課題。面臨一新興疾病,例如嚴重急性呼吸症候群,傳統的流行病學方法仍是有用的工具。 方法:吾人利用Sartwell's氏之對數常態模式,預估嚴重急性呼吸症候群在某一客機上造成之群突發的潛伏期。將病患個別的潛伏期取對數,作成常態機率分布圖,並以Kolmogorov-Smirnov法檢驗。再以變異數檢驗該病例分布是否呈波以松分布,評估是否有空間的群聚現象。 結果:根據Sartwell's氏之對數常態模式,預估的潛伏期為37.8小時,以常態機率分布圖及Kolmogorov-Smirnov法確認了潛伏期的常態對數模式,也證實該病在客機上的傳播來自共同感染源,這些病例的分布並不呈波以松分布的隨機模式,其具有空間的群聚現象。 討論:在無分子生物學的調查証據下,傳統的流行病學方法仍是適於用來研究群突發或是新興傳染病的。 |
英文摘要 | Background and purpose: The incubation period is a characteristic common to any disease, especially infectious diseases. To ascertain a simultaneous exposure and a spatial clustering are helpful in evaluating an outbreak. Spatial distribution has played a central role in the epidemiology of a number of diseases. Facing a novel disease, for example severe acute respiratory syndrome, traditional epidemiological approaches are applicable. Methods: Sartwell's lognormal model was used to estimate the incubation period of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak on an airplane. A normal probability-probability plot of the logarithmic transformation of individual incubation periods was graphed and validated by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. A test of variance was applied to test the Poisson distribution, which was the description of objects distributed spatially at random. Results: Based on Sartwell's model, the estimated median of the incubation period was 37.8 hours. The normal probability-probability plot and Kolmogorov-Smirnov test established the lognormal model of the incubation period. The transmission of SARS on the airplane was also shown to be due to a common source according to this model. The Poisson distribution was rejected, indicating there was spatial clustering. Discussion: With the lack of a molecular work-up, traditional epidemiological approaches are appropriate in the investigation of an outbreak or an emerging disease. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。