查詢結果分析
來源資料
相關文獻
- 人口變化及預測之分析研究--以宜蘭縣為例
- 以灰預測GM(1,1)模式探討宜蘭縣人口預測之研究--兼論人口結構特性
- 環境管理預測模式在臺灣地區人口預測之實證研究
- 人口及生物族群成長趨勢預測之探索性研究
- Chi-Chi Earthquake-caused Landslide: Grey Prediction Model for Pioneer Vegetation Recovery Monitored by Satellite Images
- 中國人口變化與氣候變遷
- 我國近二十年人口變遷與十大死因變化之回顧--看臺灣地區人口變化
- 臺北都會區大眾捷運系統臺北模式社經趨勢分析
- 臺灣總人口預測:1971-2015
- 政府的人口預測為何錯的離譜
頁籤選單縮合
題名 | 人口變化及預測之分析研究--以宜蘭縣為例=Analysis Both of the Variation and Prediction of the Population--A Case Study of Yilan County |
---|---|
作者 | 陳俊合; | 書刊名 | 正修學報 |
卷期 | 21 2008.11[民97.11] |
頁次 | 頁55-75 |
分類號 | 542.1 |
關鍵詞 | 人口變化; 人口預測; 灰預測模式; Population variation; Population prediction; Grey forecasting model; |
語文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 對以往人口變化的瞭解及對未來人口發展之推求乃是社經發展規劃決策之重要依據,因此本研究以宜蘭縣近年來之人口資料爲基礎,探討宜蘭縣之人口變化特性,釐清宜蘭縣十二市鎮鄉人口近年之增減情形,並預測宜蘭縣未來之人口成長。傳統預測方法於面臨樣本個數不多、影響因素複雜且不確定性高等情形時,常會面臨模型複雜、模型假設不合乎現實環境與準確度不高等問題,灰預測方法則可有效改善此方面之問題。本研究先以灰預測方法推求宜蘭縣之人口發展,並與傳統之廻歸預測方法針對預測力(forecastability)做一比較。經本研究探討與分析後發現,灰預測方法在人口預測模型之預測力較傳統廻歸方法來的有效與精確。宜蘭縣現階段之老年人口(65歲以上)比率佔12.6%,已達聯合國世界衛生組織所定義之高齡化社會標準。有關宜蘭縣十二市鎮鄉之人口變化,宜蘭市與羅東鎮因位居宜蘭縣中心區域,都市化發展程度最高,故其人口歷年來皆呈現正成長,其餘之十鎮鄉則幾皆呈衰減現象。本研究最後藉由灰預測模式推估宜蘭縣2010年之總人口及十二市鎮鄉2009年之可能人口,以提供政府部門擬議人口發展政策之參考。 |
英文摘要 | The understanding of population variation and inferring of population development is an important basement for planning decision of social and economic development. This study investigated the characteristic of population variation in Yilan County on basis of population database recently, and predicted the population growth in the future. Traditional prediction method will often face problems of model complex, hypotheses of model not accordance to realistic environment and low precision, etc. while during few data, complicated factors and uncertain conditions. Grey prediction method can effectively improve these problems. This study first calculated the population development in Yilan County by grey prediction method, then compare traditional regression method focused on forecastability. After the investigation and analysis of this study, grey prediction method in population prediction is more effective and accurate then traditional regression method on forecastability. The ratio of advanced age people (more then 65 years old) in Yilan County is 12.6%, which is in accord with the definition of a society of advanced age by World Health Organization of United Nations. On account of the central location in Yilan County, the urbanization of Yilan City and Luodong Township are highest then other districts. So the population growth of two districts is positive, other districts are almost negative growth. Furthermoer by means of grey forecasting model to predict the population of Yilan County, in order to propose results to the government for reference when making decision in population policy. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。