查詢結果分析
來源資料
頁籤選單縮合
題名 | 匯率變動對產業生產的影響:產業關聯分析=The Impact of Change in Exchange Rate on Industrial Production--An Industry-related Analysis |
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作者 | 洪振義; 李見發; 鍾怡君; 簡俊銘; Hong, Cheng-yih; Li, Jian-fa; Chung, Yi-chun; Chien, Chun-ming; |
期刊 | 財金論文叢刊 |
出版日期 | 20121200 |
卷期 | 17 2012.12[民101.12] |
頁次 | 頁43-59 |
分類號 | 563.24 |
語文 | chi |
關鍵詞 | 產業關聯分析; 波及效果模型; 匯率變動; Input-output analysis; Spill-over effect model; Exchange rate change; |
中文摘要 | 在影響台灣經濟成長的主要因素中,出口爲重要的因素,所以出口的增加,將可提高經濟成長之動力。在金融危機過後,全球貿易衰退的現象,出口的減少充分顯現在這次的全球金融危機當中,由於台灣是出口導向的國家,因此對於我國的經濟產生很大衝撃。本文以採用行政院主計處所公布的95年產業關聯表作爲基礎,並以波及效果模型來探討當匯率變動時,對於台灣產業影響之程度。實證分析顯示,當台灣增加中國之出口最終需要爲35.05億美元,預期帶來經濟總和效果爲56.76億美元,其中包含直接效果30.1億美元、第一次間接波及效果20.79億美元及第二次間接波及效果5.87億美元。而台灣對美國之出口最終需要增加額爲10.92億美元,可以推估它所帶來經濟總和效果爲17.69億美元,其中包含直接效果、第一次間接波及效果及第二次間接波及效果之生產誘發額,分別爲9.38億美元、6.48億美元及1.83億元。另外,在七個部門之波及效果分析的實證結果,對於台灣出口中國及美國的主要部門皆是以服務業占最多,其次是機械業,最後才是化學業。 |
英文摘要 | The economic growth in Taiwan is influenced by export. Thus, the export is one of the important factors in this process. Due to financial crisis and recession in the global trade, export had decreased throughout the period. As might have been known Taiwan is an export-oriented country, which will certainly have a great impact on Taiwan's economy.To given sequences by D.G.B.A.S (2006) accounting and statistics with the input-output table issued. In addition, spill-over effects model enable to explore of exchange rate changes the in Taiwan's industry. The research result suggests that Taiwan should do exports to China, which is about 3.505 billion dollars, and expected to gain 5.676 billion dollars for the economic total spillover effect, which includes the direct effect is 3.01 billion dollars, the first indirect spill-over effects is 2.079 billion dollars and the second indirect spill-over effect is 587 million dollars. In addition, Taiwan should do a big amount of exports to USA, which should be 1.092 billion dollars, and expected to gain 1.769 billion dollars for the economic total spill-over effect, which includes the direct effect, the first indirect of spill-over effects and the second indirect of spill-over effects is 938 million dollars, 648 million dollars and 183 million dollars respectively.Moreover, analysis of empirical results in the spill-over effects of the seven departments, the main sectors of Taiwan's exports to China and the United States are based on the services sector accounted for up to, followed by the machinery industry, and finally the chemical industry. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。