頁籤選單縮合
題 名 | Was It a Wild Card or Just Our Blindness to Gradual Change? |
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作 者 | Hiltunen, Elina; | 書刊名 | Journal of Futures Studies |
卷 期 | 11:2 民95.11 |
頁 次 | 頁61-74 |
分類號 | 540.1 |
關鍵詞 | Future; Gradual change; Wild cards; Weak signals; Early warning signals; Emerging issues; |
語 文 | 英文(English) |
英文摘要 | This paper examines the different definitions of the term wild card. Most often the wild card is defined as a surprising event that has significant consequences. In the literature the examples labelled as wild cards do not always meet this definition. I have divided changes into two categories according to the rapidity of the change taking place: wild cards and gradual changes. By looking at the examples of wild cards in the literature, I found that a large number of them are actually gradual changes. This paper also clarifies the difference between wild cards and weak signals, which are sometimes considered synonymous. Weak signals are a means of avoiding blindness to gradual changes and wild cards in advance. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。