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題名 | 總要素生產力與經濟成長:臺灣的實證研究=An Empirical Study on Total Factor Productivity and Economic Growth in Taiwan |
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作者 | 張雅棻; 官德星; Chang, Ya-fen; Guan, De-xing; |
期刊 | 經社法制論叢 |
出版日期 | 20050700 |
卷期 | 36 民94.07 |
頁次 | 頁111-153 |
分類號 | 555.1 |
語文 | chi |
關鍵詞 | 總要素生產力; 經濟成長來源分析; 實質景氣循環; 週休二日; Total factor productivity; Growth accounting; Real business cycles; Decline of hours worked; |
中文摘要 | 本文以實證研究臺灣在經濟成長的過程中,總要素生產力(TFP)所扮演的角色,從成長的觀點,在動態一般均衡理論的架構下,來解讀臺灣的成長。我們首先利用Robert Solow的新古典成長理論,來分析臺灣經濟成長的來源,並校準一個實證模型,使我們的模型能夠模擬真實的情況。在文中我們首先假設TFP為AR (1)的形式,隨機的外生技術衝擊透過一般均衡理論的架構,產生各變數時間數列均衡解;結果顯示,我們模擬的結果似乎沒有非常接近實際的資料,原因可能和資本累積方程式、效用函數、工作的負效用函數等的設定,或是效用函數以二次式逼近的方法和精準度有關。 此外,我們參考Hayashi and Prescott (2002)的做法,將外生變數以實際的資料代入模型中,模擬並預測1998-2008年的資料,以此探討每人工時變動後的經濟情況。我們發現,當TFP為確定的時候,我們的模型幾乎可以正確地描述實際的情況,並推測每人產出、每人消費、每人資本對每人產出之比例,將在2003-2008年以小幅度成長。 |
英文摘要 | In this paper wer apply the methods of Hayashi and Prescott (2002) to study the economic growth in Taiwan, with special reference to the recession since the second half of 2000. The growth accounting exercises show that total factor productivity (TFP) is important for understanding the growth performance of Taiwan. Two procedures are used to examine the TFP effects. First, we follow Kydland and Prescott's (1982) real business cycles (RBC) methodology to see whether technology shocks might be important factors for explaining Taiwan's economic growth, but the model calibration results do not replicate the data well. And the second procedure is therefore to deterministically simulate the effects of the decline of weekly hours worked since 1997, which has been emphasized by Hayashi and Prescott as an important factor responsible for the depression of Japan in the 1990s. We found that the simultaneous decline of TFP and weekly hours worked fits the data better than the stochastic technology shocks do. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。