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題 名 | 桃芝(2001)颱風之數值模擬=A Modeling Study of Typhoon Toraji (2001) |
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作 者 | 青麟; 楊明仁; | 書刊名 | 氣象預報與分析 |
卷 期 | 180 2004.09[民93.09] |
頁 次 | 頁35-44 |
分類號 | 328.55 |
關鍵詞 | 颱風模擬; 物理參數法; MM5; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 本研究使用PSU-NCAR的MM5中尺度模式,以2001年的桃芝(Toraji)颱風為研究個案,使用3層巢狀網格(最細網格間距為6.67公里),探討初始渦旋參數設定與不同物理參數法對模擬桃芝颱風路徑、強度以及伴隨之風雨分佈的影響。同時對物理參數法實驗組做系集分析,希望籍由系集平均方式以改善模擬結果。 模擬結果顯示,植入不同初始渦旋對於模擬路徑的影響不大,植入之最大風進對颱合成最大風速對颱風髓度則有成正比的關係。在各物理參數法實驗組中挑選出表現最佳的物理參數法,組合成最佳物理參數法組合,其模擬結果在路徑、強度或降雨方面皆有最好的表現,其中模擬颱風路徑在登陸前略有往西偏折之現象,此與王等(2001)之觀測分析結果一致。而對物理參數法各組實驗結果做系集分析後,對於颱風路徑路模擬有明顯改進,但對於強度模擬的改善程度有限。降雨之水平分佈經過系集平均後可有顯著改善,豆累積降雨量仍較實際觀測偏少。 |
英文摘要 | In this study, a nonhydrostatic mesoscale model (the PUS-NCAR MM5) was adopted to simulate Typhoons Toraji (2001) and to investigate the dependence of simulated track, central pressure, wind gust, and accumulated rainfall of the storm on initial vortex characteristics and physical parameterizations. The model configuration includes three nested domains with grid size of 60, 20, and 6.67 km, respectively. Results from the experiments on vortex initialization indicate that the storm's track is not very sensitive to the vortex initialization; however, the intensity of the storm is proportioned to the bogussed maximum near-surface wind. Three sets of five numerical experiments on cumulus, imcrophysics, and planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations are performed (15 experiments totally). An experiment with the best scheme from each of three sets of physical parameterization experiments has the best performance in terms of central pressure, wind gust and accumulated rainfall, This best-physics experiment can also simulate the sudden turning of Toraji's track right before the landfall. Standard deviation and ensemble (arithmetic) mean are calculated for each set of physical parameterization experiment. The ensemble-mean are calculated for each set of physical parameterization experiments. The ensemble-mean track and rainfall distribution are much closer to the observations than each individual experiment. @@@ |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。