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題名 | 投資決策之不確定性研究:以資本預算應用為例=Uncertainty of Investment Decision--Using Capital Budgeting as an Example |
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作者 | 葉榮椿; 鍾興漢; 陳宜檉; 夏則智; Yeh, Ron-chuen; Chung, Han-hsing; Chen, Yi-cheng; Hsia, Tse-chih; |
期刊 | 美和技術學院學報 |
出版日期 | 20030900 |
卷期 | 22:2 2003.09[民92.09] |
頁次 | 頁161-175 |
分類號 | 563.52 |
語文 | chi |
關鍵詞 | 決策; 不確定性; 不明確; 確定因子; Uncertainty; Ambiguity; Decision; Certainty factor; |
中文摘要 | 許多學者已發現不確定性,例如機率之不明確會影響決策績效,並指出所有決策模式應應考慮不確定性。然而,在傳統的資本預算決策模式中,有些以機率處理不確定性,有些則完全將其忽略,但不管何模模式,機率或其他變數值都被假設為確定或合適的,而以此模式所產生之結果做為決策之主要依據。本研究擴充確定因子的觀念,並探討如何將確因子與傳統的資本預算模式整合,進而提出一個描述性模式,這新的模式不但擁有傳統模式之特性,更可考量不確定性之問題,提供額外的資訊與彈性以彌補傳統模式之不足。最後,本文並以範例示範此新模式對資本預算中不確定性問題之處理。 |
英文摘要 | Previous studies had pointed out that uncertainties, such as ambiguous probabilities, could affect decision performance. These studies also studies also stated that the uncertainty should be taken into account for all decision models. For traditional models of capital budgeting, probability may be applied for uncertainty. In these traditional models, probability or other variables will be assumed to be certain and suitable. Decisions derived from these models could be skeptical because the improper consideration of uncertainties may significantly affect the decision performance. Integrating certainty factors with the traditional capital budgeting model, this study extends the concept of certainty factor and proposes a descriptive model to account for the uncertainty. Besides the functions of traditional model, this new approach will provide additional information and flexibility to overcome shortcomings of the traditional approach. An example is included in this study to illustrate different processes and results of the traditional approach and the new model. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。