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題 名 | 切花交易價格共整合分析=Cointegration Tests on Cut Flower Transaction Prices |
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作 者 | 李皇照; 何彩華; | 書刊名 | 中華農學會報 |
卷 期 | 4:6 2003.12[民92.12] |
頁 次 | 頁489-501 |
分類號 | 482.9 |
關鍵詞 | 花卉; 共整合檢定; 市場整合; Flower; Cointegration; Market integration; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 台灣地區切花運銷體系以四個花卉批發市場為軸心,花卉交易作業採荷蘭式電腦鐘拍賣決價,交易價格形成公開、公正與公平,且能適切地反應市場供需狀況。本文利用台灣地區花卉批發市場交易價格資料檔,選擇大菊、小菊、劍蘭、康乃馨、玫瑰、大文心蘭、洋桔梗和滿天星,進行市場間交易價格共整合分析。樣本資料期間為民國八十五年一月一日至八十九年十二月三十一日,實証分析係以每週平均交易價格為資料基礎。 單根檢定結果顯示,康乃馨、大文心蘭和滿天星三種花卉的交易價格資料屬非定態時間數列。進一步共整合檢定結果指出,Engle和 Granger兩階段程序之DW和ADF兩種檢定方法的檢定結果有不一致情形,而Johansen最大概似共整合檢定則與DW的檢定結果大致一樣。綜合各項檢定結果,樣本期間康乃馨、大文心蘭和滿天星三種花卉品類,在四個花卉批發市場間之交易價格形成具有相依互動影響關係,且符合完全競爭空間市場長期均衡條件。換言之,台灣地區四個花卉批發市場之康乃馨、大文心蘭和滿天星三種花卉交易價格時間數列符合市場整合條件。 |
英文摘要 | In Taiwan, flower wholesale markets play a vital role in cut flower marketing system. This paper utilizes weekly data for analyzing the integration of transaction prices among flower wholesale markets. Eight cut flower categories, chrysanthemum, chrysanthemum (spray), gladiolus, carnation, rose, oncidium, eustoma and gypsophila, are included in this study. The unit root tests show that the transaction prices time series of carnation, oncidium and gypsophila are not stationary. Furthermore, the integration tests of transaction prices of carnation, oncidium and gypsophila indicate the results of D-W test and ADF test are inconsistent. However, the test results of Johansen procedure and D-W method are consistent. As a whole, based on the empirical test results, the transaction prices time series of carnation, oncidium and gypsophila in four flower wholesale markets satisfy the conditions of market integration, implying long-run equilibrium in Taiwan flower spatial markets. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。