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題名 | 地下管線維修工法之風險分析= |
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作者 | 吳振賢; 唐玄蕙; |
期刊 | 臺灣公路工程 |
出版日期 | 20010200 |
卷期 | 27:8 2001.02[民90.02] |
頁次 | 頁38-51 |
分類號 | 441.618 |
語文 | chi |
關鍵詞 | 地下管線; 維修工法; 風險分析; Underground pipe; Maintenance method; Risk analysis; |
中文摘要 | 地下管線免開挖技術強調低污染及不影響交通之特性,可降低傳統明挖工法施工中所造成的社會成本。但因費用高、國內操作技術不成熟及其工法與機具適用性等問題,決策者在選擇時常需考慮其風險性。本研究利用影響圖、敏感度分析、決策樹分析等分析技術,建構一風險評估架構,並以一實際個案評估傳統明挖工法與免開挖之旋轉擴大工法於地下管線維修之成本影響。本文首先將管線維修工程中可能遭遇的風險逐一確認並分類,並利用影響圖建立各參數間的關係。再以敏感度分析找出比較重要的影響因素,並經由縮減模型後,最後應用決策樹分析協助管理者之決策。本研究在於提供決策者透過風險分析理論量化模型與明確問題所在,以提昇決策品質。 |
英文摘要 | Underground pipe trench-less technique is better than traditional trench construction by its low pollution and few effects of traffic. But the user needs a complete analysis method to decide what construction method to use because of the high-price, non-familiar technique, and the suitability. This study used influence drawing, sensibility analysis, and decision tree analysis to establish the structure of risk analysis and to compare the traditional trench construction with the traditional trench-less construction by the price and effects. First, the risk that may be encountered is identified to establish the model of the relationship of each parameter using influence drawing. Then the model is simplified, way to deal with the problems. Which means it only remains the important factors that is found by sensibility analysis, to show the results using decision tree analysis. The purpose of this study is to provide the manager to quantify the model by risk analysis and to significant the problems to figure out a better |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。