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題名 | Diffusion Test=檢驗創新傳播 |
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作者 | 張秀蓉; |
期刊 | 世新大學學報 |
出版日期 | 19991000 |
卷期 | 9 1999.10[民88.10] |
頁次 | 頁91-110 |
分類號 | 541.83 |
語文 | eng |
關鍵詞 | 創新傳播; 數學公式; |
中文摘要 | 此篇論文主要是以一數學公式來解釋創新傳播(Diffusion of innovations)過程中,從一開始被走在時尚之先的使用者所引進,到漸受大眾所接受,到後來新知變成舊聞,慢慢被人所遺忘、淘汰的過程。並藉由此公式來預測創新傳播過程中所必經之幾個階段。 在論文中藉用了五組創新傳播之數據,來預測此數學公式之適當性(robustness)。結果顯示此數學公式能預測的精確度高達99%,比Barnett et al.所提出之模式,更精確。 |
英文摘要 | The S-shaped curve is characterized to best describe the diffusion of innovation process. Numerous attempts have been made to find a theory-based mathematical equation to describe the S-shaped curve, yet most of these models suffer from the pro-innovation bias (Roger, 1983) because they all try to focus on adoption and not disadoption. Nevertheless, Barnett, Fink and Debus (1989) proposed a mathematical model capable of describing both adoption and discontinuance processes, but Kang and Cheng (1989) criticized this model for it is incapable of depicting a state of equilibrium. This paper proposes a model capable of describing the patterns of adoption and discontinuance as well as a state of equilibrium. Five data sets were used to examine the proposed model. The results indicated that the proposed model fit the data very well. It explained over 99% of the variance in the rate of adoption/discontinuance of intercity motor carriers of passengers, horses & mules, and monochromatic television sets. The proposed model was slightly better than Barnett et al.'s model in explaining the variance of motion picture attendance data and daily newspaper circulation in those situations where the eventual level of adoption is stable. |
本系統之摘要資訊系依該期刊論文摘要之資訊為主。