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來源資料
頁籤選單縮合
題 名 | 非預期性衝擊對實質產出之實證檢視=The Effect of Unanticipated Impact on Real Output--An Empirical Examination |
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作 者 | 邱建良; 李命志; 邱哲修; | 書刊名 | 商管科技季刊 |
卷 期 | 1:2 2000.06[民89.06] |
頁 次 | 頁153-163 |
分類號 | 561.18 |
關鍵詞 | 貨幣不對稱性; 非預期衝擊; 一般化自我迴歸條件異質變異數模型; Asymmetric monetary effect; Unanticipated impact; GARCH model; |
語 文 | 中文(Chinese) |
中文摘要 | 國外實證研究多支持油價變化對產出具有負向關係,而且負向非預期性貨幣政策衝擊比正向非預期性貨幣政策衝擊對產出有較大的效果,此即所謂之貨幣政策對產出的不對稱效果。為了驗證此一理論在臺灣的適切性,本文將非預期性的油價變化衝擊由GARCH模型導出,先檢驗非預期性的油價變化衝擊對產出是否具不對稱效果。經檢視臺灣的資料發現,非預期性的油價變化衝擊對產出具有顯著負向的關係。而在貨幣政策對產出之不對稱效果檢驗方面,本研究結果亦發現,正的非預期性貨幣政策衝擊較負的非預期性貨幣政策衝擊對產出有較大的效果。 |
英文摘要 | Most of the studies supported that shock from the change of oil prices has the negative effect on a nation's real output, while the monetary policy has the asymmetric impacts on real output. In this study, in addition to applying the existed studies, we take the consideration of the effect of unexpected oil price change which is derived from GARCH model to see how it affects the real output. We found unanticipated change from the oil price has significant negative effect or real output while asymmetric impacts have been found for a national's monetary policy on real output. That is unexpected expansionary policy has greater effect on real output than contractionary policy does. |
本系統中英文摘要資訊取自各篇刊載內容。